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A funny thing happened on the way to the plank: book piracy declined. You could hear the cheers around the world! The numbers were irrefutable, a 13% decline. Sure it was strange that the American Association of Publishers was using these lower numbers to bolster support for the still-secret ACTA negotiations, but it’s even stranger that they are still sporting older numbers on their website.

I’d be shouting the good news in 72-point blinking red text. With twirly images!

The good news about the decline of piracy was accompanied by some very troubling information. As Kirk Biglione points out in his article on the decline of piracy, there’s something odd about the numbers. Brian O’Leary, whose researcher worked to untangle the numbers, hones in on one big problem: the numbers are out-of-date.

So while there is an undisputed downward trend in book piracy, the entire industry (and Congress, among others) are working with out-of-date information. And frankly, even that information is squishy. I’d go so far as to say incomplete. Projections and estimates replace hard numbers in the data provided by the International Intellectual Property Alliance (IIPA).

Kirk Biglione and Brian O’Leary don’t believe the AAP’s own numbers (nor do they really believe the “decline”). Members of the AAP are quick to point out that these figures are only through 2007, leading to the logical-but-still-unanswered question about more current figures. Of course, the IIPA’s numbers aren’t all that solid, either. The methodology used is interesting (emphasis mine to show another flaw in logic):

The book and journal publishing industry relies on local representatives to determine losses. These representatives base their estimates on the availability of pirated books and journals, especially those found within or near educational institutions. Publishing industry representatives also take into account the number of users in a jurisdiction, the estimated need for the product (based, in the case of educational materials, on university and school adoptions) and the number of legitimate sales. Given the diverse types of products offered by different publishing companies, these estimates cover only a portion of the market lost in each territory and are thus rather conservative in most cases.

(It is interesting that the United States does not appear on watch lists — really? All piracy problems are someone else’s…Canada?)

Piracy is a real, serious issue. However, nobody knows how serious. Getting answers leads to more questions. There are negatives and positives associated with file sharing and non-purchase related downloads. The problem is that nobody is willing to assess them. Sales are being lost, nobody knows how many (not every download is a lost sale). The underlying motivations for piracy — other than those who engage in stealing because they just plain like to steal — hasn’t been studied. Ways to convert downloaders to customers…there’s a discussion!

It should go without saying (but won’t!) that understanding and possibly reversing some types of piracy impacts publishing margins, those notoriously thin and growing thinner numbers. Staff and technical time is devoted to “fighting” piracy. Additional costs are incurred, money that might be better spent elsewhere. Of course, we have no way of knowing.

These are the publishing industry’s own numbers, and they show a decline in piracy. My experience is that publishing wants to fight the good fight against lost sales, but isn’t willing to engage in non-politicized conversation about piracy, digital rights management (oh, I have tried there, and think I at least made some headway!), consumer rights, file sharing, and how to leverage. Heck, publishers aren’t even willing to participate in surveys that could very well help them develop smart strategy.

So hey! Good news: piracy was on the wane in 2007. I think that deserves a toast.

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