I borrowed this blog post title from a headline that caught my eye in The Library Journal Academic Newswire (Feb. 12, 2008 - At O’Reilly “Tools of Change” Conference, Publishers Look Warily to the Future). It touched on what I’d intended to blog about today — how I’m looking at and wondering about the future of publishing.
In a relatively short period of time, so much has changed in regards to selling books. In the summer of 1996, the wholesale independent distribution business collapsed, leading to a crippling of mass market sales that continues to this day. Independent bookstores struggle to compete with chains. Chains are downsizing and posting losses. Wal-Mart, a major distributor of books sold in the United States, cut back on which titles they stock. E-readers are becoming more user friendly. The number of e-book retailers is increasing. In a separate but related event, the Writers Guild fought long and hard for “new media” rights. In a January 18, 2008 New York Post article on Wal-Mart’s decision to curtail the number of magazines it distributes, the publishing industry is described as “battered.”
Content in the age of the Internet is a “free-for-all,” and the “legacy model” of authors writing, publishers publishing, and readers buying only what booksellers stocked on their shelves has broken down.
– James Lichtenberg, president of Lightspeed, LLC (as quoted in The Library Journal, Feb. 12, 2008)
As a reader, I’ve come to expect that I will definitely find the book I want online. It’s a crapshoot whether I’ll find it in a bookstore, and almost certainly it will not be in my grocers or drugstore, because they only stock the BIG names. Stephen King books from the ’80s are many times more likely to be there than a book that released yesterday.
As a writer, it’s clear that the distribution channels for non-bestseller books are dwindling by the day. In a recent discussion with friends, I suggested that it wouldn’t be much longer before the coveted CALL from NY for a first sale would be for an e-exclusive release. Right now the NY publishers are doing e-exclusives in shorter lengths — epilogues, prologues, erotic quickies. But certainly it won’t stay that way. They’re testing the waters and more e-friendly readers are hopping on the e-train every day. With the overhead for an e-exclusive so much smaller than a print release and the promotional burden resting almost entirely on the author’s shoulders, it makes sense to see a future where debut authors cut their teeth on e-exclusives, especially if a print version would have limited distribution outlets. Why fire up the presses for a book that’s only available on retailer websites? If the author manages to build up an audience with their e-release, maybe they’ll get a print re-release. If that manages to sell well enough, maybe they’ll graduate to a print original.
I’m just speculating, of course, but it’s undeniable that the publishing industry is poised for a massive shift of some sort. Mr. Lichtenberg suggests that “the future business model for book publishing can best be understood as providing a service rather than a commodity.” Makes sense, but how will they do it? As a California native, the present publishing climate feels to me the way the earth does just before a quake hits. It’ll be interesting to see how the industry settles once the shaking has subsided.
***UPDATE***
Related to the discussion about the future of book sales–
From PR Newswire:
Borders Unveils First Concept Store
“…we’ve brought a fresh new look and an exciting interactive dimension to the store with a Digital Center where customers can do everything from mix and make their own custom CDs, download books and music, publish their own books, explore their family history, and create photo books — all without being computer experts because we have trained people there to help every step of the way.”– George Jones, Borders Group Chief Executive Officer
I really don’t know what to think. I know building a readership online can be very valuable. I also don’t think it’ll work for all authors or all genres.
by Charlene Teglia February 14th, 2008 at 7:56 amI wish you were wrong.
I agree with Charlene - e-stuffs work, but only to a point.
That said, I don’t think that brick & mortars will go the way of the dinosaur because there are too many people unwilling or unable to adapt to e-reading. I have bad enough eyes as it is, reading too much on-screen could be awful for me, and I just adore the feel and smell, etc, of a ‘real’ book.
I do see, perhaps, the selection in a B&M limiting, or fracturing into niches, and the possibility of having to order in the majority of books any one person ever looks for…. I forget where I read it, but with POD technology becoming better, it might work for respectable publishers to implement it somehow. I’d look up the article but I have no idea where I read it or I’d credit where due, but that seemed like an interesting possibility that would account for not everyone taking to e-reading.
Change is scary. >.>
by Jess February 14th, 2008 at 8:11 amI think e-books are the wave of the future. However, I am one of those who finds reading them *painful.* I’ll read them for Advanced Reader’s Copies authors send me to review, but I won’t buy them. Maybe one day we’ll fall into a similar category as readers who are more comfortable reading Large Print. But, there will always have to be paper books for us.
I think it’s wonderful if an author can publish in both forms. Diversify!
by Kimber An February 14th, 2008 at 8:40 amWith change comes opportunity. Being a businesswoman, I know that fortunes are made during times of disruption.
And as a writer writing in a very small niche, I’m quite excited about the future. Under the traditional system, I wouldn’t get my books sold at all.
Now that the costs of small runs have decreased, everyone can eRelease and everyone can POD. (Of course, that doesn’t mean that everyone can sell books.) The niche writers have an outlet.
by Kimber Chin February 14th, 2008 at 10:06 amI’m another one who can’t stand ebooks. I want the printed page, and I’m hoping they stay around awhile longer. I recently read that romance writers are making 1/4 of what they made in the 80s, which is depressing to say the least. But these things can be cyclical, and I wonder if in 10, 20, 100 years, paper books will be popular again.
Kate
by KateHewitt February 14th, 2008 at 10:10 amI switched to digital late last year and now buy everying in e book, even if it is available in print. I love the space saving, because what to do with my huge piles of books was always an issue. I can’t imagine going back to print.
Perhaps we’ll see bookstores that pod publish what their customers want from computer bookstore file access.
by Becca Furrow February 14th, 2008 at 10:44 amSylvia, as frightening as your prediction is…I have to agree with the possibility.
We are starting to see it already arent’ we? We different publishers releases novellas in eform, like Avon, and Harlequin with their SPICE Briefs,and now the Nocturne Bites. Which as an author that already writes for them, is an added bonus to me. But will it be a great opportunity for new writers to break into the publisher’s print lines? God, I hope so!
And lately I’ve been looking around online about the change in advances, and I’ve seen evidence that we are getting paid A LOT less then say even 10 years ago and with the ever growing cost of living it becomes even less.
It makes me very sad.
by Vivi Anna February 14th, 2008 at 11:32 amAfter more than a dozen years of hearing about how e-publishing is poised to eclipse traditional print publishing — and seeing on my last royalty statement that, despite dozens of e-bookstores now, how the e-editions of my books sell in the low hundreds, as opposed to tens of thousands in print — I’m skeptical about how this “new” model is supposed to work, for either publisher or author.
It’s not that I don’t agree that the present model isn’t working, but I’m not at all convinced that going POD/electronic is a truly viable alternative. For most of us who aren’t “big” names, the vast majority of book purchases happen at point-of-sale, by readers who may not even know we have a book out unless they SEE it ON THE SHELVES. They’re not going to go searching for it on the Internet, and they’re not going to buy a special device to read it. E-books are like the Macs of the reading world, IMO — those who use them love them to bits and couldn’t imagine life without them, but the majority of the world still uses PCs.
The other worrisome thing about this “new author only gets an e-contract” scenario — because, presumably, that’s really all there is — is how this will affect author longevity. As I inferred above, IN MOST CASES (because there are always exceptions) if an author wants to sell a lot of books, those books have to be in readers’ faces…and the Internet doesn’t cut it if we’re talking about your typical romance readers. She buys what she sees, period. If sales have shrunk because of decreasing distribution, I don’t see how making the books HARDER to find is an improvement.
At this point, most e-pubs are more than thrilled to move into print and at least get a shot at their books becoming physical, visible entities. If it becomes even more difficult for an author to move into print, I can guarantee you we’ll lose a good number of very talented authors who simply can’t afford to work for peanuts indefinitely. Seeing little or no hope of advancing, they may very well move on.
A prospect I find very sad, indeed.
by Karen Templeton February 14th, 2008 at 11:54 amInteresting topic. I recently attended an education conference at which Ian Jukes was a keynote speaker. He talked at length about the digital generation, the kids right now sitting in my high school classroom daily and the ones to follow them, and the saturation of technology in our world. Technology is going to get faster and cheaper. Kids are tech-savvy already. How many buy a CD and carry them around? Nope. MP3 players with thousands of songs.
These same kids are the ones using Google books and online libraries such as Galileo for research. They prefer it to print books because for them, it is more intuitive, as they do not remember life before cell phones and the Internet.
If this is our base of future readers, it is not that print books will cease to exist (you can still buy CDs at Walmart, right?) but there will be a large generation exposed to ebooks as a reading norm (i.e. high schools that can now load textbooks and resource texts on ereaders that students carry from class to class — eliminating the 80 pound backpack). I don’t think you’ll see the complete demise of print books — but I think there will be an increase in the distribution of electronic formats.
Again, Sylvia, thanks for an interesting post!
by Linda Winfree February 14th, 2008 at 12:26 pmI think you only need to look at music to see where books are going. Remember a few years ago when there were several “record” stores in the mall, they are all gone now. Usually there is one last holdout, and a few increasingly-small sections in dept stores. cd’s went online and can still be purchased that way but now e-downloads are cutting into them and 10 years from now the idea of buying a cd will be archaic except in special cases like a boxed set.
One of the problems with the model is that electronic files are considered free for much of humanity, the internet generation increasingly asks “why should I buy it when I can pull it free from somewhere?” Of course thats not everybody but the knowledge that free alternatives exist (legal and otherwise) cuts into those sales. Quality doesn’t seem to matter too much to them, Trent Reznor released a freebie lo-fi version of his latest album and asked $5 for a hi-fi version of the *whole album*, turns out 90% of the people were happy with lo-fi and wouldn’t pony up the cash, despite it being less than 50c per song. That carries over into writing: erotica has to contend with free asstr.org, science fiction has to contend with free fanfic, etc. Although the quality is low the price is right.
In the current market where quality seems to be an increasingly smaller piece of the picture and novelty an increasingly larger one, I just don’t see where the e-books are ever going to make tons of money.
by Mark February 14th, 2008 at 12:31 pmI think much will depend on how well received the new Border’s specialty stores that are about to open on the east coast are received. From what I’ve read, they are supposed to incorporate technology and create a completely different store/buying model. If they are a hit, we may be seeing a huge change in the B & M stores.
by Jordan February 14th, 2008 at 1:07 pmOk this might probably be a stupid question but what exactly happened in 1996? I discovered romance in 2001 and ebooks in 2003, but never heard of any crash back then. (Of course, I also was a teenager 12 years ago and dreamt of different things LOL)
by Katie February 14th, 2008 at 2:48 pmFascinating blog! I think it is more and more likely that those NY contracts will be e-contracts, at least at first, as you look at what is happening. Hopefully it will lead to bigger and better things over time for talented writers.
by Heather Hiestand February 14th, 2008 at 4:16 pmI find it hard to understand why women especially are resisting ebooks, except when I remember that the industry hasn’t done very much to promote them - for example, for the commenters who complained about not being able to see very well, font size in an ebook can be adjusted by the user (which makes any book a Large Print Book) and most formats are designed to be compatible with things like braille readers and Kurzweils for people who can’t see at all.
by Mia Amato February 14th, 2008 at 4:45 pmI was at TOC as well and don’t think authors need to fear ebooks either. Vivi, I saw today that two of your backlist books are being promoted today at Powells.com, part of an ebooks promotion called the (ahem) Love-O-Meter. So I would posit that ebooks are great for the backlist - not big time money makers yet, but something that keeps titles in front of readers — and out of the discount bins.
“Perhaps we’ll see bookstores that pod publish what their customers want from computer bookstore file access.”
Yes, that was what I was attempting to articulate.
I don’t think you can compare CD’s and DVD’s to books, per se, because those media are digital to start with. It makes sense to go the e-route with them because the form is already the same. Books aren’t the same, and so I don’t think they’re as easily adaptable. Although I concede that it is easier now more than ever to adapt them, and that this will grow, I just don’t think they’ll replace regular books the way everyone says they will, as is happening to CD’s and movies. My hubby works for Suncoast [movie store] so I totally get how it works, I just don’t think it translates as easily to books.
by Jess February 14th, 2008 at 6:01 pmWe don’t have a bookstore in our town. The only places within 30 miles to buy books are Wal-Mart or the grocery store, so buying books online is the only alternative. Now, it’s pretty much the only place that I buy books.
by Lucinda February 14th, 2008 at 8:41 pmOur highschools have laptops for each student and one of our middle school’s is all digital. They do power point presentations in grade school here.
The schools gave away Mac computers last year when they upgraded, so students that didn’t have one in the home would have access. My eighth and ninth grade daughters use the computer for homework every night. I don’t know how a family with kids in school could manage without one.
Like their friends they have cell phones, mp3 players, they purchase their music online…digital is their world. One has a cell phone with internet access–it is all she wanted for Christmas.
Perhaps the challenge will be in trying to discover the new point of sale. Buy a code at the check out, something like those mini cds that come in cereal boxes that link you to your purchase? A cardstock printed cover with a chip? Adds, links and promos on music downloads? Or iphone news add pages? Ebook subscription libraries?
Women my age(50) like print, but I don’t know that the new generation of readers will prefer paper over digital. Seems unlikely.
by Becca Furrow February 14th, 2008 at 11:11 pm